Chapter 4 Alternative Centres Of Power

Following the end of the bipolar world order in the early 1990s, marked by the decline of the Soviet Union, the global landscape shifted towards dominance by the United States. However, it became evident that other regions and nations were emerging as potential centers of power that could offer an alternative or limitation to this US dominance.

This chapter explores some of these emerging alternative centers of power. In Europe, the **European Union (EU)** has become a significant force. In Asia, the **Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN)** has gained prominence. Additionally, the remarkable economic rise of **China** has had a profound impact on world politics. These entities have not only addressed historical issues within their regions but have also developed unique institutions and approaches that foster peace, cooperation, and economic prosperity.

These images represent the evolution of China: the first shows its early socialist ideology, while the second depicts modern Shanghai, a symbol of its dramatic economic transformation and rising global power.

European Union

After the devastation of the Second World War, European leaders faced a crucial question: how to rebuild Europe and prevent a return to the destructive rivalries of the past. The war had destroyed economies and challenged the fundamental assumptions governing relations between European states.

The integration of Europe after 1945 was significantly aided by the context of the Cold War. The **United States** provided substantial financial assistance through the **Marshall Plan** to revive European economies. The US also established **NATO** as a collective security structure to counter the Soviet threat.

The Marshall Plan led to the formation of the **Organisation for European Economic Cooperation (OEEC)** in 1948, which facilitated economic cooperation among Western European states. The **Council of Europe**, established in 1949, was a step towards political cooperation. This gradual process of economic integration culminated in the establishment of the **European Economic Community (EEC)** in 1957. The creation of a European Parliament added a political dimension.

The collapse of the Soviet bloc accelerated the integration process, leading to the formation of the **European Union (EU)** in 1992. This laid the groundwork for deeper cooperation, including a common foreign and security policy, collaboration on justice and home affairs, and the eventual introduction of a single currency.

The EU has evolved beyond a purely economic union into an increasingly political entity, showing characteristics similar to a nation-state. Although efforts to establish a formal Constitution failed, it possesses its own flag, anthem, founding date, and currency (the Euro). It also attempts to implement a common foreign and security policy.

The EU has expanded to include new members, many from the former Soviet bloc, although this process has faced challenges due to public reluctance in some countries to cede national powers to the EU and reservations about admitting certain new members.

The EU flag's twelve gold stars in a circle symbolize unity, solidarity, and harmony among the peoples of Europe, with the number twelve representing perfection and completeness.

This map illustrates the member states of the European Union, distinguishing between older and newer members who joined after its initial formation.

The EU wields considerable influence across multiple domains:

• Economic Influence: The EU is the world's **second-largest economy**, with a GDP exceeding $17 trillion (as of 2016). Its currency, the **Euro**, is a significant global currency and a potential challenger to the US dollar's dominance. The EU's large share of world trade gives it leverage in trade negotiations and disputes. Its economic power grants it influence over neighboring countries and in regions like Asia and Africa. It also acts as a powerful bloc within international economic bodies like the World Trade Organization (WTO).
• Political and Diplomatic Influence: Key EU members like Britain and France hold **permanent seats on the UN Security Council**, and the EU includes several non-permanent members, enabling it to influence global political issues and even some US foreign policies (e.g., regarding Iran's nuclear program). The EU often favors diplomacy, economic engagement, and negotiation over coercion and military force, an approach seen in its dialogue with China on human rights and environmental issues.
• Military Influence: Collectively, the EU member states possess the **second-largest armed forces globally** and the second-highest total defense spending after the US. Two members, Britain and France, are nuclear powers with significant arsenals. The EU is also a major player in space and communications technology.

Despite its strengths, the EU faces limitations as a truly unified entity. As a supranational organization, it can intervene in various areas, but member states often retain independent foreign and defense policies that can conflict. For instance, divisions emerged over the Iraq invasion, with Britain supporting the US while Germany and France opposed it, and many newer EU members joined the 'coalition of the willing'. There is also underlying **'Euroscepticism'** in some parts of Europe, making deeper integration challenging and limiting the EU's ability to act cohesively in foreign policy and defense matters.

This cartoon uses the image of the sinking Titanic to represent the European Union's failed attempt to adopt a common constitution in 2003, suggesting that this setback was a major, perhaps disastrous, event for the project of European integration.

Timeline of key milestones in European Integration:

Association Of South East Asian Nations (Asean)

Southeast Asia has a history of repeated colonial rule and faced significant challenges after World War II, including nation-building, widespread poverty, and the pressure to align with superpowers during the Cold War. These factors created a potential for conflict that the region could ill afford. Earlier efforts for Asian unity, like the Bandung Conference and NAM, did not fully succeed in fostering practical, informal cooperation among Southeast Asian nations.

Recognizing the need for regional stability and development, the countries of Southeast Asia formed their own alternative framework: the **Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN)**.

ASEAN was founded in **1967** by five countries signing the **Bangkok Declaration**: **Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand**. The primary goals were accelerating economic growth and, through that, promoting social progress and cultural development. A secondary, but crucial, objective was fostering **regional peace and stability** based on the rule of law and UN Charter principles.

ASEAN expanded over the years to include Brunei Darussalam, Vietnam, Lao PDR, Myanmar, and Cambodia, bringing its membership to ten countries.

The ASEAN flag features ten stalks of paddy representing the ten member states bound together in friendship and solidarity, enclosed within a circle symbolizing the unity of the association.

This map shows the geographical location of ASEAN member states in the East Asia and Pacific region.

A key characteristic distinguishing ASEAN from the EU is its approach: there is little desire for supranational structures. ASEAN operates based on the **'ASEAN Way'**: an informal, non-confrontational, and cooperative interaction style. Respect for the national sovereignty of member states is paramount.

With some of the world's fastest-growing economies, ASEAN broadened its scope. In 2003, inspired by the EU's model, ASEAN agreed to establish an **ASEAN Community** built on three pillars:

1. The ASEAN Security Community.
2. The ASEAN Economic Community.
3. The ASEAN Socio-Cultural Community.

The **ASEAN Security Community** is founded on the belief that territorial disputes should be resolved peacefully, preventing armed conflict. By 2003, members had agreed to uphold principles of peace, neutrality, cooperation, non-interference in internal affairs, and mutual respect for sovereign rights and national differences. The **ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF)**, established in 1994, is the body responsible for coordinating security and foreign policy discussions.

ASEAN remains primarily an **economic association**. Although its overall economy is smaller than the US, EU, or Japan, its growth rate is significantly faster, increasing its regional and global influence. The **ASEAN Economic Community** aims to create a common market and production base, enhancing economic development and social progress within the region. It also seeks to improve mechanisms for resolving economic disputes. ASEAN has actively pursued the creation of a **Free Trade Area (FTA)** covering investment, labor, and services, attracting major partners like the US and China to negotiate FTAs with the bloc.

ASEAN has become a crucial regional organization. Its **Vision 2020** projected an outward-looking role, building on its existing policy of encouraging negotiation over conflicts. ASEAN has successfully mediated in conflicts like the Cambodian conflict and the East Timor crisis and holds annual meetings for East Asian cooperation.

ASEAN's growing economic importance, particularly its relevance as a trading and investment partner for rising Asian economies like India and China, enhances its attractiveness. India's foreign policy, which paid insufficient attention to ASEAN during the Cold War, has made amends since the early 1990s with the **'Look East Policy'** (now 'Act East Policy'). India has signed trade agreements with ASEAN members and a comprehensive **ASEAN-India FTA came into effect in 2010**.

ASEAN's strength lies in its emphasis on interaction and consultation with members, dialogue partners, and other organizations. It serves as a unique political forum in Asia for discussing political and security concerns among Asian countries and major global powers.

This photo shows leaders releasing postal stamps commemorating 25 years of India-ASEAN partnership in 2018, symbolizing India's increasing engagement with the Southeast Asian bloc.

This cartoon appears to comment on the contrasting success rates of ASEAN and SAARC, possibly suggesting that the presence of a dominant country (implied to be India in the context of SAARC) might hinder effective regional cooperation, unlike the more balanced power dynamics within ASEAN that foster unity and success.

The Rise Of The Chinese Economy

China has emerged as a significant alternative center of power globally, particularly due to its phenomenal economic rise since 1978. It is now considered one of the fastest-growing economies worldwide and is projected to potentially surpass the US as the largest economy by 2040. China's deep economic integration into the East Asian region makes it a driving force behind regional growth and gives it considerable influence over its trade partners and in regional affairs. Its overall power is bolstered by its large population, land mass, resources, and increasing political influence.

This cartoon uses traditional symbols like the Great Wall and a dragon to depict China's growing economic power. The small figure looking on could represent other nations or perhaps outdated perspectives struggling to comprehend China's rapid ascent.

After the establishment of the People's Republic of China in 1949 under communist leadership, its economy was initially modeled on the Soviet system. China chose to isolate itself from the capitalist world and relied on its own resources and limited Soviet aid. The model focused on developing a state-owned heavy industrial sector, funded by capital extracted from agriculture. To conserve foreign exchange, China pursued an import substitution policy, producing goods domestically instead of buying them on the world market.

This approach enabled China to build a foundational industrial economy on a large scale. It also guaranteed employment and social welfare for citizens, leading to notable improvements in education and health compared to many other developing nations. The economy grew at a respectable rate of 5-6% annually. However, significant population growth (2-3% per year) meant that economic growth struggled to keep pace with the growing needs. Agricultural production was often insufficient to generate enough surplus to fund industrial expansion. Like the USSR, China's state-controlled economy faced challenges: slow industrial growth, minimal international trade, and very low per capita income.

Facing these limitations, the Chinese leadership implemented major policy changes in the 1970s:

• In 1972, China ended its political and economic isolation by normalizing relations with the **United States**.
• In 1973, Premier Zhou Enlai proposed the **'four modernizations'** focusing on agriculture, industry, science and technology, and military.
• In 1978, led by Deng Xiaoping, China announced the **'open door' policy** and initiated economic reforms, aiming to attract foreign capital and technology to boost productivity.

China's transition to a market economy was gradual, unlike the 'shock therapy' approach seen in post-Soviet countries. Reforms were introduced step-by-step: **privatization of agriculture began in 1982**, followed by the **privatization of industry in 1998**. Trade barriers were initially lowered only in designated **Special Economic Zones (SEZs)** to attract foreign investors. The state maintained and continues to play a significant central role in managing this market transition.

These new economic policies dramatically revitalized the Chinese economy:

• Agricultural privatization led to a substantial increase in output and rural incomes, fueling growth in rural industries.
• High personal savings contributed to exponential growth, particularly in rural manufacturing.
• Both industry and agriculture experienced accelerated growth rates.
• New trade laws and SEZs resulted in a **phenomenal increase in foreign trade**.
• China became a leading global destination for **foreign direct investment (FDI)**.
• Accumulated large foreign exchange reserves enabled China to invest significantly in other countries.

China's accession to the **WTO in 2001** further deepened its integration into the global economy. The country aims to play a major role in shaping the future world economic order.

Despite the remarkable economic growth, the benefits of reforms have not been equally distributed in China. Challenges include:

• Rising **unemployment**, with millions seeking jobs.
• Poor employment conditions, particularly for women.
• Increased **environmental degradation**.
• Rising **corruption**.
• Growing **economic inequality** between urban and rural areas and between coastal and inland provinces.

Regionally and globally, China's economy has become a major power. Its integration into the world economy has created interdependencies that give China considerable influence over its trading partners. Economic considerations often temper China's approach to outstanding political issues with countries like Japan, the US, ASEAN members, and Russia. China also hopes that close economic integration will help resolve its differences with Taiwan.

China's economic actions have also contributed to regional stability, notably assisting ASEAN economies during the 1997 financial crisis. Its increasing outward investments and aid policies in Latin America and Africa are projecting China as a significant global player, often aligning itself with developing economies.

These cartoons use the symbol of the bicycle, commonly associated with China (the world's largest user), to comment on the duality of contemporary China – perhaps representing the blend of older, mass-based characteristics with new economic dynamism, or the continued challenges faced by the populace alongside rapid national growth.

India – China Relations

Historically, both India and China were influential powers in Asia before the era of Western imperialism. China exerted influence, often through a unique tributary system, over areas like Mongolia, Korea, parts of Indo-China, and Tibet. Various Indian kingdoms also extended their influence beyond their immediate borders. This influence was multifaceted – political, economic, and cultural. However, the regions where their influence was strongest rarely overlapped significantly, resulting in limited historical political and cultural interaction and mutual unfamiliarity. This lack of deep historical engagement made developing a foreign policy towards each other challenging in the 20th century.

After gaining independence (India) and expelling foreign powers (China), there was initial optimism for cooperation between the two nations to shape the future of Asia and the developing world, popularized by the slogan **'Hindi-Chini bhai-bhai'** (Indians and Chinese are brothers). However, this hope was soon overshadowed by military conflict over border disputes.

Early differences arose from China's takeover of Tibet in 1950 and disagreements over the final delineation of the Sino-Indian border. This culminated in a **border conflict in 1962**, primarily over territorial claims in the present-day Arunachal Pradesh and the Aksai Chin region of Ladakh. India suffered military setbacks in this conflict.

The 1962 conflict had long-lasting negative effects on India-China relations, leading to the downgrading of diplomatic ties until 1976. Relations began to improve slowly thereafter. A change in China's political leadership in the late 1970s led to a more pragmatic foreign policy approach, less driven by ideology. China became willing to defer the settlement of contentious issues like the border dispute while working to improve overall relations. Border talks were initiated in 1981.

Significant positive changes have occurred in India-China relations since the end of the Cold War. The relationship has acquired important **strategic and economic dimensions**. Both countries see themselves as rising powers destined to play major roles in the Asian and global political and economic landscape.

Rajiv Gandhi's visit to China in December 1988 provided crucial momentum for improving ties. Since then, both sides have taken steps to manage potential conflicts and maintain 'peace and tranquility' along the border. Agreements on cultural exchanges and cooperation in science and technology have been signed, and border posts opened for trade. The rapid growth in bilateral trade, increasing dramatically from $338 million in 1992 to over $84 billion in 2017, has fostered a more positive view of the relationship.

More recently, India and China have agreed to cooperate even in areas that could potentially cause conflict, such as jointly bidding for energy assets abroad. They have also adopted similar positions on issues within international economic institutions like the WTO.

Meetings between the leaders of India and China, like this one, are indicative of the ongoing high-level engagement and efforts to strengthen relations despite historical complexities.

While India's nuclear tests in 1998 were partly justified by a perceived threat from China, and China's military ties with Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Myanmar have been viewed with concern in India, these issues are now considered less likely to lead to direct conflict. Evidence of improving trust includes the uninterrupted continuation of border talks and increasing military-to-military cooperation.

Frequent visits by leaders and officials, growing mutual familiarity, increasing connectivity (transportation and communication), shared economic interests, and common concerns on global issues are expected to contribute to a more stable and positive relationship between the world's two most populous nations.

Japan

Japan is a major economic power in Asia, despite having limited natural resources and relying heavily on raw material imports. It achieved rapid post-WWII economic growth and became a member of the OECD in 1964. In 2017, it was the **third-largest economy globally** and the only Asian member of the G-7 group of leading industrial nations. It is also the eleventh most populous country.

Japan is historically unique as the only nation to have suffered atomic bombings. It is a significant contributor to the United Nations budget, providing nearly 10% of the total. Japan has a security alliance with the US dating back to 1951. Its constitution (Article 9) famously renounces war and the threat or use of force to settle international disputes. Although its military expenditure is relatively low as a percentage of GDP (1%), in absolute terms, it ranked as the seventh largest globally in 2017.

The development of advanced robotics like ASIMO by Honda reflects Japan's strengths in high technology and innovation, a key aspect of its global influence.

Considering its economic strength, technological prowess, significant global contributions (like to the UN), but also constitutional limitations on military force and reliance on the US security alliance, Japan's capacity to function as a truly independent alternative center of power presents a complex question.

South Korea

The Korean peninsula was divided after World War II, leading to the establishment of South Korea (Republic of Korea) and North Korea (Democratic People's Republic of Korea) along the 38th Parallel. The Korean War (1950-53) and Cold War dynamics intensified this division.

South Korea subsequently emerged as a significant center of power in Asia. Between the 1960s and 1980s, it experienced rapid economic development, famously dubbed the "**Miracle on the Han River**," becoming a major economic force. It joined the OECD in 1996. In 2017, South Korea had the **eleventh-largest economy globally** and the tenth-largest military expenditure.

The modern skyline of Seoul near the Han River visually represents the rapid economic transformation that earned South Korea the title "Miracle on the Han River."

South Korea also ranks high in human development (18th in HDI in 2016), attributed to successful land reforms, rural development, extensive human resource development, and rapid, equitable economic growth, supported by export orientation, strong redistribution policies, infrastructure investment, and effective governance.

South Korean brands like Samsung, LG, and Hyundai are globally recognized, including in India. Growing commercial and cultural ties between India and South Korea are reflected in numerous bilateral agreements.